1. Play back home, an advantage … except when it is called Monaco?
Of the twenty clubs making up the Ligue 1 this season, only one has so far taken more points away than at home: AS Monaco. With the same number of games played (14), the club of the Principality has gleaned 26 of his 50 points away from its foundations. This particularity must urge caution before the eighth-final of the Champions League against Arsenal. On the lawn of the Louis II stadium, the team of Leonardo Jardim has often had the greatest difficulty in expressing themselves. However, two caveats to this concern: firstly, ASM has signed against Bastia his biggest win of the season at home (3-0). Furthermore, the result of the move will just allow Monaco to not have to make the game, which has often been the cause of their worries in their den.
Matheus, Fabinho and Kurzawa with AS Monaco – 2015 – AFP
2. The Gunners are shaped
Arsene Wenger has hinted this weekend that his team probably crossed his best pass of the season. “The team is stronger and more solid than it was early in the season, we go up in power at the right time,” he ruled. The results tend to confirm his words. Arsenal has won seven of its last eight games in all competitions, scoring in every victory at least two goals. The only exception? The reverse at the Emirates Stadium against Monaco. A match judged as “suicidal” to defensive plan by the Alsatian manager. Implied, is first Arsenal who is punished alone. But in his collective expression, it is undeniable that Wenger’s team has turned a corner in recent times, coinciding, too, with the return to form of certain individuals, such as Olivier Giroud. The tricolor striker remains on six goals and three assists in the last eight Premier League games.
Olivier Giroud Arsenal – 2015 – AFP
3. Arsenal has failed to do against Bayern
If the AS Monaco needs a warning not to approach this overconfident rematch is one. There are two years in the knockout stages of the Champions League already, Arsenal had lost 3-1 at home against Bayern in the first leg. On return, while no one gave them half a quarter of a chance from the beginning, the English had won 2-0 in Munich with goals from Giroud and Koscielny. Unrecognizable, the Bavarians took the match completely upside down and ended up playing with fire. Yet that Bayern was something. Finalist from the previous edition, it was en route to his fifth European title. It was also his only defeat in seven games, eighth in the final. Distrust, so for Monaco.
In 2013, Arsenal had failed to turn the tide against Bayern after losing 3- 1 home in the first leg. – Panoramic
4. For Monaco, it’s a tough game to and manage
There are three weeks not many people saw AS Monaco approach the return match in a strong position. The bang maousse the Emirates with that 3-1 win totally changes the game. Now, statistically, given the history, Monegasques … 100% chance to qualify. They find themselves in a highly favorable position and now an elimination would be experienced as a big failure. ASM does not want to set a precedent. The pressure is on players Jardim. Perhaps they will accommodate without difficulty this unexpected context. But this is not guaranteed.
The joy of Aymen Abdennour during Arsenal Monaco (2014-2015 season) – Panoramic
5. Arsenal has never been eliminated by a French team
When we are on the precipice, we seek every reason to cling to life. For Arsenal, his past against French clubs can be one. Since its first confrontation with … FC Rouen in 1969-70 in the “famous” Cities Fairs Cup, the London club has ever been eliminated by a French club in a knockout duel. And earlier are still numerous. Rouen, therefore, but also PSG, Auxerre, Nantes and Lens has stumbled in turn on the Gunners. In the group stage, the results are slightly more positive for French clubs. During the previous three seasons, Marseille (2011-2012), Montpellier (2012-2013) and again Marseille (2013-2014) suffered five losses in accumulated for a draw against Arsène Wenger. Only Lens, in 1998-99, had posted a positive review by winning at Wembley, with zero Bollaert. But the RCL had not so far qualified for the quarter-finals of the C1. In fact, Arsene Wenger has never lost on French soil in the European Cup with Arsenal. That said, Tuesday night, even a victory may not be enough …
Arsenal Bergkamp against RC Lens Alex Nyarko in the semifinals of the UEFA Cup 2000 – Imago
6. Football is not always rational
Statistically, Arsenal has virtually no chance of qualifying. Everything is against the Gunners. Switch to losing home in the first leg by two goals is extremely rare. And on another score as 2-0, this falls absolute miracle, as for Barcelona against FC Metz in 1984 (2-4, 4-1). No team has never obtained his qualification after a 3-1 defeat at home in C1. Worse, Monaco did not concede a single goal in three games at home this season in the Champions League. Now Arsenal must score at least three goals to qualify and “at least” is not trivial given that the Gunners have only managed three times to keep their clean sheet in the last 31 away games in Champions League.
In short, a rational analysis of the situation leaves enough little hope to the English. Their chance is precisely out of the rational. To put a touch of madness. To blow too established patterns. As Liverpool had managed to do in 2009. … Beaten 3-1 at Anfield for Chelsea, the Reds had set fire to Stamford Bridge, carrying the Blues in an unlikely encounter. Liverpool had led 2-0 and 4-3 before the two teams will leave on a score of parity (4-4). This is typically the kind of scenario that could shatter the statistical certainty and to ASM in danger.
April 2009, the unforgettable 4-4 between Chelsea and Liverpool. – Imago
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